CPI-U was 261.582 in January 2021, 317.671 in January 2025 and 334.980 in August 2026: roughly +21.4% across the first interval and +5.5% since January 2025.

Limit: Unadjusted index-level comparisons are not annual inflation rates or presidential causal estimates.

The 30-year mortgage average was 7.03% on September 24, up from 6.95% a week earlier and 6.30% a year earlier; August shelter CPI rose 3.0% year over year. BEA's latest regional prices show substantial differences in housing-rent levels across states.

Limit: Mortgage and CPI rates do not capture property taxes, insurance or local rent burdens; BEA regional price levels are annual and currently refer to 2024.

August food CPI rose 2.7% year over year; grocery prices rose 2.2%, food away from home 3.4%. Retail and food-service sales rose 1.2% in August. BLS consumer-expenditure tables allow spending-basket comparisons by income and household composition.

Limit: Retail sales are nominal and do not prove rising real volumes; expenditure breakdowns currently lag 2026 conditions.

August energy CPI rose 16.3% year over year, gasoline 27.4%; energy rose 2.1% from July. EIA's July electricity tables separately report residential, commercial and industrial prices by state.

Limit: National CPI does not establish each household's bill or local fuel prices; EIA's average electricity price is not the total bill.

August medical-care services CPI fell 0.2% from July but rose 2.5% over 12 months; medical-care commodities fell 2.7% over 12 months.

Limit: CPI components are not a complete out-of-pocket, premium, deductible and prescription basket.

The August CPI release records an increase in the education index during the month.

Limit: A comparable national childcare-bill series and household-type cost baseline were not verified in this review; no joint affordability direction is assigned.

Real average hourly earnings fell 0.1% from July to August and 0.3% year over year, while real weekly earnings rose 0.3% year over year as hours increased.

Limit: Averages mask occupation, income group and household differences.

Real disposable personal income rose 0.4% in July from June; current-dollar disposable income rose 0.5%.

Limit: This is an aggregate monthly change, not a finding that every household gained purchasing power.

BEA reports July disposable income after personal taxes rose 0.5% in current dollars. New York Fed data show total household debt fell $13 billion in Q2 to $18.8 trillion, while credit-card balances rose $21 billion from Q1.

Limit: Balances are not payment burdens; no combined after-tax, interest-payment and debt-service result by household is established.

Census reports real 2025 median household income of $87,460, up 2.6% from 2024. The Census household pulse series provides separate, more timely reports of difficulty paying usual expenses.

Limit: The annual median does not establish 2026 gains by family, tenure or region; pulse responses are self-reported and survey designs changed in 2026.

Real GDP grew at a 1.5% annual rate in Q2 versus 2.1% in Q1; real final sales to private domestic purchasers grew 4.2% in Q2. BLS separately publishes manufacturing output per hour for a productivity test.

Limit: GDP growth, underlying demand and output per hour answer different questions; no productivity effect is attributed to a particular policy.

August business applications were 531,728, down 7.8% from July; projected formations within four quarters were 28,501, down 4.6%. Census Business Dynamics Statistics tracks actual firm startups and shutdowns.

Limit: Applications and projected formations are not actual openings; the latest BDS firm series is annual and currently ends in 2023, so it cannot settle 2026 closures.

August nominal retail and food-service sales rose 1.2% from July; final-demand producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% over 12 months.

Limit: These series do not reveal an economy-wide realized business-margin trend.

Producer prices rose 0.4% in August; isolated announced discounts do not demonstrate broad, sustained supplier cuts.

Limit: A matched product/supplier panel with before-and-after transaction prices and duration was not verified.

The FOMC raised the funds-rate target to 3.75–4.00% on September 16.

Limit: The policy rate is not an observed small-business borrowing rate; no matched credit-access and bankruptcy series was reconciled.

Manufacturing output fell 0.3% in August after seven monthly gains and stood 0.9% above a year earlier.

Limit: Domestic output does not by itself measure reshored supply chains or causal effects of trade policy.

BEA reports investment contributed to Q2 GDP growth; the Fed reports August business-equipment output fell 0.5%. Census's Annual Integrated Economic Survey supplies industry-level capital-spending estimates for 2023 and 2024.

Limit: Historical industry totals do not verify any 2026 project announcement, completion or cash outlay; the new Census capital-spending product is experimental.

Payrolls rose 162,000 in August; unemployment was 4.1%. Real hourly earnings fell 0.3% year over year, while real weekly earnings rose 0.3%. BLS employer records allow a separate industry and county cross-check of employment and wages.

Limit: Payroll and household surveys differ; QCEW coverage is broad but arrives with a lag and cannot isolate policy effects.

July construction spending was 3.8% below July 2025 overall; August manufacturing output fell 0.3% from July.

Limit: All-construction spending is not factory-specific; no matched factory completion-to-output cohort was established.

August mining output rose 0.1%, utilities output rose 1.8%, and manufacturing output fell 0.3%. EIA publishes state electricity prices by residential, commercial and industrial use.

Limit: Production and average prices do not establish reliability, full household bills or supply-chain resilience.

Food CPI rose 2.7% and final-demand PPI rose 5.4% over the year to August.

Limit: A request to lower prices cannot be credited with a measured national discount absent matched transaction data and controls.

No verified national outcome series connects competition or personalized-pricing actions to a lower household basket in this review.

Limit: Requires dated rule/enforcement records and matched consumer-price evidence.

CBO projects a $1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit and debt rising to 120% of GDP by 2036 under its February baseline. Treasury's monthly statement records realized receipts, outlays and deficit for a separate fiscal check.

Limit: Baseline projections and aggregate cash results do not identify the effect of each enacted tax or spending provision; bill-specific scoring remains necessary.

No comparable completed-project or median permit-time change attributable to a particular final rule was verified.

Limit: Compare published final rules, agency permit timelines and project completions against the pre-change baseline.

August U.S. mining output rose 0.1% from July, while household energy CPI was 16.3% higher than a year earlier.

Limit: Mining includes non-energy activity, and output changes do not establish cheaper household energy.

USTR lists signed reciprocal-trade agreements and tariff actions; August U.S. manufacturing output was 0.9% above its year-earlier level. USITC DataWeb allows product-level trade-flow and tariff checks.

Limit: Signed text, tariff revenue, realized exports, import prices and net domestic output require separate series; trade shifts do not establish tariff incidence or a causal net benefit.

August business-equipment output fell 0.5%, and defense-and-space equipment output fell 1.2% from July.

Limit: One month's output cannot measure production readiness, inventory or procurement delivery.

BEA reports $232.2 billion of 2025 new foreign direct investment expenditures to acquire, establish or expand U.S. businesses.

Limit: Aggregate 2025 spending is not proof of 2026 Buy American compliance or specific announced project delivery.

August unemployment remained 4.1%, and labor-force participation was 61.6%, down 0.5 percentage point since January.

Limit: These aggregate workforce numbers cannot isolate immigration-policy effects on wages, vacancies or sectors.

CBO projects a near-$1.9 trillion FY2026 deficit and rising interest costs; the independent FOMC raised its target rate to 3.75–4.00% on September 16. Treasury statements provide actual receipts and outlays for comparison.

Limit: Projected net interest is not a realized outlay, and the Fed's independent decision is not an administration action.

The House has legislative and appropriations authority; a change in party control has no single measured household price effect.

Limit: Assess enacted bill text and CBO/JCT effects for each actual vote, not a party-control scenario as an outcome.

Appropriations and rescissions require congressional enactment or the statutory impoundment process; no consolidated enacted-to-outlay reconciliation was verified for this measure.

Limit: Identify each enacted appropriation or rescission, its budget score and subsequent Treasury outlays before claiming realized savings.

Senate consent and confirmations are institutional mechanisms, not an independently measured economic outcome.

Limit: Identify a specific nomination or treaty, operative date and measurable economic channel before assigning direction.

Reconciliation can alter tax and mandatory-spending law, subject to the enacted text and legislative process.

Limit: A vote threshold alone cannot be scored as economic progress; use signed law and independent budget estimates.

Oversight can uncover implementation problems, but a subpoena is neither a finding nor recovered money.

Limit: Require a published finding, remedy, audited savings and timing before measuring fiscal effect.

Proposed bills, executive directives and enacted statutes confer different authorities and have different economic effects.

Limit: A current bill-specific status register and scored implementation path are required; proposal does not equal law.

Either configuration can pass, amend or block particular measures; there is no standalone observed 2026 price effect to attribute to a future election outcome.

Limit: Analyze named bills under explicit scenarios; do not forecast harm from control alone.

No single household or business effect can be inferred from a category of bills without enacted text, eligibility, effective date and budget estimate.

Limit: Build separate records for each material bill and distinguish CBO projections from observed prices and income.